Economic Environment
The world economic growth continued to remain weak during 2002, though
relatively better than the poor forecasts that followed the September 11
episode. The US economy seemed to be weighed down by many external factors. The
steep cut in the interest rates by Federal Reserve, which was aimed at giving
growth impetus to the US economy, did not have the desired impact. Slow
recovery of capital spending, fall-out of corporate scandals, sliding stock
markets and war on Iraq have taken their toll on global economic activity. The
Euro Zone continued to reflect a bearish outlook for most part of 2002. With
interest rates being the lowest in forty years, economic activity is expected to
pick up in 2003.
Oman's Economy
The performance of Oman's economy was satisfactory, especially when viewed
against the international economic environment. Omanisation, economic
diversification and privatization remained the key elements of economic policy
supported by efforts to
attract foreign and domestic investment into a range of economic sectors. The
Government fiscal position continued to remain good in 2002 and the expected
budget deficit is RO 100 million as compared to RO 380 million budgeted for
2002. The reduced deficit is due to increase in average oil prices at USD 23.58
per barrel as against an estimate of USD 18 per barrel budgeted in
2002. The year 2002 witnessed a decline in oil production.
Oman's budget for the year 2003 is pragmatic and growth oriented. Total revenues
are estimated at RO 2,600 million showing an increase of over 4 percent against
RO 2,490 million budgeted for the year 2002. Total expenditures are expected to
increase by 4.5% to RO 3,000 million compared with RO 2,870 million budgeted in
2002. The overall budget deficit for 2003 is expected to be RO 400 million. Oil
revenues are expected to account for about 71% of the total revenues in 2003
compared to 73% budgeted in 2002. Thus the non-oil sector revenues are improving
due to the positive measures taken by the Government. Oil revenue is
estimated on the basis of an average price of USD 20 per barrel. The average oil
production is expected to be 763,000 barrels per day. Two new power projects at
Al Ghubra and Rusayl are expected to go on stream. Privatization of various
projects is also in progress and the Government is planning to divest its stake
in certain premium public limited companies.
The balanced fiscal and monetary policies have helped the nation to record
negative inflation. The Muscat Securities Market (MSM) realized good gains and
the index rose from 152.08 as of December 31, 2001 to 191.86 as of end of
December 2002, thereby registering an increase of 26%. Investor interest has
been spurred on by an improvement in the performance of local
companies and government reforms. The introduction of new provisions in the
Capital Market law, new regulatory functions to combat insider trading and
introduction of corporate governance in all listed companies has added to
investors' confidence.
In spite of the challenging economic conditions prevalent in Oman as in the rest
of the world, Bank Muscat has performed exceptionally well in the year 2002. The
businesses that the Bank acquired in 2001/2002 have proved to be good investment
decisions and have strengthened its position as the largest bank in Oman and
also established Bank Muscat as a name to
reckon with in the region.
Financial Sector
The financial system in Oman can be broadly classified into the following
categories: banking institutions comprising the Central Bank of Oman, commercial
banks and specialized credit institutions. The Central Bank of Oman is the apex
institution of the
banking system. There are also several exchange houses dealing in exchange of
money and issue of drafts, non-banking credit institutions comprising leasing
companies, hire purchase and finance companies, non-monetary institutions
without credit functions like insurance companies, pension funds, mutual funds
and investment companies and Muscat Securities Market which facilitates issue of
securities to the public and trading in securities listed on the market.
The Banking sector in Oman witnessed a challenging
period in 2001 mainly on account of exposures to a major trading group, which
collapsed during the year 2001. In addition, the weak stock market pushed down
the investment valuations. However, with improved liquidity conditions and a
steep decline in the interest rates, the local banks in Oman have reported
improved results in 2002 as compared to 2001. The number of licensed
banks operating in Oman as of September 30, 2002 was 18, of which 6 were local
banks, 9 were foreign banks and 3 were specialized banks. Bank Muscat commands a
market share of over 34% in terms of total assets, 37% in terms of total credit,
34% in terms of customer deposits and over 30% in terms of savings deposits as
per the latest statistics available.
Opportunities and Threats
Bank Muscat has the ability to offer a range of financial products to its
customers, through its wide branch network and delivery channels backed by state
of the art technology. Being the largest bank in Oman, the Bank has
opportunities to act as Lead Manager for large privatization projects in
Oman and also to improve its fee-based income through asset management, private
banking and corporate advisory services, retail assets and credit cards,
enhanced treasury related activities and overseas branches within the GCC states
and outside.
Threats posed to the banking industry are the volatility of oil prices, further
economic slowdown, consolidation in the banking industry, increased competition
in the wake of Oman's entry into WTO and slow growth in non-oil sector. There
could be a
slowdown in the economies of the Middle East countries and other parts of
the world in view of the war with Iraq.

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